Instead, consider that the 2.07% probability is implying that the outcome is about 33% (0.51/1.56 = 0.33) more likely than it actually is.Ī single bet, for comparison, implies the outcome is just 4.8% (2.38/50 = 0.048) more likely than it actually is.Īnd obviously, you’re much more likely to find edges attacking a 4.8% gap than a 33% one. That’s not, however, how the comparison should be read. I mean, the odds of hitting a five-team parlay are only 0.51 percentage points less than what the books are implying … that sounds like nothing. The following table illustrates how the chances of winning parlays compares to the payouts received as the number of bets is increased (assume each bet comes at the standard -110 juice and has a 50% chance of winning).Ĭomparing the percentages may not do justice to the difference between the implied and true probabilities at first glance. While the payouts are certainly appealing, they’re not as high as they should be given the true chances of a given parlay winning. There are basic types of parlays, those wagered against. All of your bets must win, or at least tie, in order for you to win. If you place a four-team parlay, going 3-1 is no different than going 0-4. Mathematically speaking, it’s usually not a good idea to bet parlays. Simply stated, a parlay is a collection of two or more sides or totals that you bet on and all of them must win in order for you to win your bet.
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